Bayes Theorem

A symptom of the observations on Cognitive Ease.

Raw experience + context (previous beliefs, ideas your priors) = perceptions

Every time you have an experience on a topic, your priors update slightly based on your experience. For example, if you had a good experience with a dog, your prior might be that all dogs are good. Then, if you have a bad experience, your prior might update to some dogs are good and some dogs are bad.

When you have such an overwhelming experience (for example trauma) that your priors balloon, they can become “trapped”. No matter what sort of future experience you have, the prior will continuously update in the wrong direction. If you have bad enough trauma from a bad dog, even an experience with a cute and cuddly dog will reinforce your prior that dogs are bad. Basically the prior gains too much weight in the equation.

This isn’t just for trauma, it also applies to normal ideas and especially to politics.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/trapped-priors-as-a-basic-problem?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

How do you naturally overcome trapped priors? I don’t think there’s a satisfying answer in the ACX post, and I’m not really sure in general. Probably some sort of gradual treatment like with trauma victims, like the post suggests, but this would take a lot of effort. But maybe effort is the only way?